Baltic Dry Index Rising Again

In September the outlook for shipping and dry bulk shipping rates, was very poor even while the stock market surged up in September. The video above tells the story. But in October the rate has moved up, as world trade in the Atlantic is expanding.

The Baltic Dry Index is a daily average of prices to ship raw materials. It represents the cost paid by an end customer to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts. The index is quoted every working day at 1300 London time. The Baltic Exchange is similar to the New York Merc in that it is a medium for buyers and sellers of contracts and forward agreements (futures) for delivery of dry bulk cargo. The Baltic is owned and operated by the member buyers and sellers. The exchange maintains prices on several routes for different cargoes and then publishes its own index, the BDI, as a summary of the entire dry bulk shipping market. This index can be used as an overall economic indicator as it shows where end prices are heading for items that use the raw materials that are shipped in dry bulk






This would be a good time to consider names like DRYS, EGLE, DSX or GNK.

What Would Jesse Livermore Do In This Market?

Would Jesse Livermore Sell, Buy or Fold?
If you are a market trader you've know nothing goes straight up or straight down for six months. So rather then debate if the market is moving in a rational or irrational direction based upon economic indicators let's just get down to protecting our assets.

I wonder what Jesse Livermore would do? Stay the course in what's been working? Short the market? Rotate out of the cyclical stocks that got us to the party into the health care stocks that missed the party? Cash in your chips and avoid the notorious months of September and October?

The Traders Motto
The legendary early 20th century stock trader Jesse Livermore said, "They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the Bull side or the Bear side, but the right side"

Jesse Livermore started his trading career at the age of fifteen. He ran away from home with his mother's blessing to escape a life of farming his father wished him to have. He then began his career by posting stock quotes at the Paine Webber brokerage in Boston. He went from these humble beginnings to owning a series of mansions around the world, each fully staffed with servants, a fleet of limousines, and a steel-hulled yacht for trips to Europe. He married his second wife Dorothy, a beautiful Ziegfeld Follies showgirl when he was about 40 years old. So, Jesse Livermore's rise to riches and persona matched the roaring 1920's.

Was It Skill, Luck Or Manipulation?
The legendary trader status of Mr. Livermore leaves new hopefuls with the notion Jesse became rich, famous and lived happily-ever-after. The critics claim that prior to the new regulations of the 30's and in the days when news took time to travel, it was easy for stock manipulators and traders to make fast money.

The facts show, during his lifetime, Livermore gained and lost several multi-million dollar fortunes. Most notably, he was worth $3 million and $100 million after the 1907 and 1929 market crashes, respectively. He subsequently lost both fortunes and in 1940 committed suicide while married to his third wife. I found it interesting that his third wife had been married four prior times and all four husband committee suicide. I find no discussion of an investigation also interesting. Tragically his son and grandson also committed suicide.

So, much for living happily-ever-after Walt Disney style.

The Right Side Is The Only Side
Yes, knowing Jesse Livermore's whole life story gives new meaning to his famous quote, "...there is only one side to the market; and it's not the Bull side or the Bear side, but the right side".

Let, me know what Jesse Livermore would do now.

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