Thursday, September 10, 2009

Beige Book Shows Green Shoots




One important report institutional investors and economists monitor is called the "Beige Book". Why is it called the Beige Book? If you guessed because it's a Beige colored printed report -you are correct. The U.S. Federal Reserve reported Wednesday in its latest Beige Book survey of the region’s business executives.

On Wednesday, the Fed's Beige book was released for July and August. It summarizes reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts and pointed to economic activity that continues to stabilize.

Compared to the summary from the Fed's last Beige Book report, 11 out of 12 regions asserted that economic activity had either stabilized or improved. Even in the 12th region -- St. Louis -- their read-out pointed to a pace of decline that was moderating.

Almost all regions remarked that among business leader contacts in their territories, the economic activity outlook is now cautiously positive.

The reports underscore what we've been hearing, that clunkermania boosted auto showroom traffic and subsequent new car sales in all regions. Several regions confirmed that the program has also resulted in increases or planned increases in automobile-related production. Beyond the auto industry, most regions reported general improvements in manufacturing production. Next month's auto sales report will likely drop off without the government incentive. But others are betting it will be better than last September.

Most territories also reported improvement in the residential real-estate markets. It has been estimated that the $8,000 first-time home buyer credit accounted for up to 35% of sales.

It also came as no surprise that with labor markets on the mend, 8 of 12 regions report upticks in demand for temporary workers - usually a leading indicator of a return to job growth.

The report is prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and based on information collected before August 31, 2009. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

Formally known as the “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District,” the Beige Book is published eight times a year

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