Tokyo shares surged 1.68 percent on Thursday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street where New York stocks climbed to the highest level in 11 months on upbeat factory data. Markets were also lifted by rising commodity prices which gave a shot in the arm to the energy and mining sectors.
Elsewhere in Asia on Thursday, Hong Kong jumped 1.71 percent, boosted by resource stocks on the back of rising commodity prices, dealers said.
Chinese shares closed up 2.02 percent on Thursday, also led by oil and metal stocks.
The USA economy and employment outlook may be an L shape or W shape recovery. But for now the world markets are clearly in a V shape recovery mode similiar to 2003. Lets hope it's not similiar to 2001 when we had a major market recovery after the 9/11 market colapse only to decline back down in 2002.
The MSCI World Stock Market Index reached a new 11-month high yesterday, rising to the highest level since early last October. From the March bottom, the index is up by 65% (see chart above).
The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index reached a two-high yesterday, closing at the highest level since August 8, 2007 (see chart below).
Stock Markets have touched highs for 2009. Dollar has gone to the lows of 2009. Sentiment is very bearish on the Dollar currently and hance very bullish on equities and commodities.
ReplyDeleteWhile it is difficult to predict markets in the near term but over long term the trend is easy to predict. In my opinion, the Dollar will be trending down in the long term with sharp reversals. So equity markets should trend up in the long term with minor or at time substantial correction.
So, are you saying the USA market top is today at 9,820 or S&P 1,068 will we make it back to the pre Lehman S&P 1,200 this year?
ReplyDeleteThis advance has already exceeded the 2003 advance. S&P 1,050 was as high as I thought we would make it. The last 300 points could be driven by so many people trying to short this market and then needing to by shares back to cover each time we get good news.
I am not very sure that the 1200 levels would be reached this year...I think in the near term we are surely headed for some kind of correction...But next year we might reach the 1200 levels and can go higher if economic news remains positive...cos there is so much liquidity in the markets that it can take indices to levels one can't imagine also...
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