Mother-of-all-V Recoveries Continues

The steady economic recovery is continuing according to the Conference Board economic indicators released on Monday.

The US has major long-term economic and social issues to manage. Still, there can be no denying that this Stock Market and Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) has been the greatest V shaped recovery of my lifetime.

The index of leading economic indicators beat even the most optimistic forecasts and rose 1.4% in March. Following upward revisions for Jan and Feb, the surprise surge in March now completes 12 consecutive gains for the index.

The coincident index, which measures the current economic conditions, also rose 0.1% in March. Of the four indicators in the coincident index, the largest positive contribution came from nonfarm payrolls. You'll recall that for March, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy netted 162,000 jobs -- the largest seasonally adjusted increase in three years.

Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist with The Conference Board, highlighted the positive jobs metric: "Payroll employment made its first substantial contribution to the coincident economic index, suggesting a recovery that is beginning to gain traction."

Now 12 Months Strong of LEI Increases

While recovery skeptics remain, it will be difficult for the economic naysayers to find any negative news should the labor market continue its positive momentum toward significant net new jobs in 2010.

The index LEI has shot above the levels it saw during the 2007 USA stock market run up to DJIA 14,400 levels. But note how the coincident index indicators look like they've barely begun to rise. I've never seen this great of a divergence, has anyone else? Is this a good or bad sign? Does this foretell a reversion to the mean?

Investing : Iraq vs. California Bonds

I have never considered the relative merits of an Iraqi bond versus a California state bond, but a reader of my toolbox for finance article, Military Entitlements Are Impoverishing Us, forwarded me an article from the Boston Globe on investing. This short excerpt from the Boston Globe makes an alarming comparison that indirectly makes one of my articles points. The piece is about two intrepid buyers of really scary emerging markets bonds from places like Venezuela, Dubai, Pakistan and Iraq. The comments about California and Iraq are most amazing.

Michael O’Hanlon, who tracks indicators of progress for the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index, said that “Iraq has continued its remarkable trajectory of improvement.’’

“It is still fairly violent by Mideast standards, but many countries in places like South America have higher overall levels of violence now from crime,’’ he said.

Traditional Wall Street investors have taken note. Iraq is now considered a safer bet than Argentina, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Dubai — and is nearly on par with the State of California, according to Bloomberg statistics on credit default swaps, which are considered a raw indicator of default risk.

“Compared to California, I’d rather bet on Iraq,’’ [Emerging market bond investor Saleh] Daher said. “Iraq is a country where there are still bombs going off and people getting murdered, but they are less indebted than the United States. California is likely to have more demands on its resources, and there is no miracle where California is going to have more revenue coming out of the sky. Iraq has prospects for tremendously higher revenues, if they can manage to get their act halfway together, which they seem to be doing.’’…

America has wasted a fortune to invade and occupy a nation that was no military treat to the US nor did it have WMDs. Now America Taxpayers are forced to spend another fortune to maintain security and rebuild Iraq at no cost to Iraq. We got the world to forgive Iraq debt as we piled up debt. Iran loved the fact taxpayers paid the cost of eliminating their number one enemy, Saddam. Now the Middle East, Oil Sheiks enjoy $85 dollar oil and the protection of the American taxpayer military, thanks to their Uncle Sam.

The cost of Iraq and Afganistan occupation nearing ONE TRILLION DOLLARS.
Now this astronomical number doesn't include the cost of a life time of medical and psychiatric care nor disability payments for wounded soldiers.

It's time the US concentrate more on its Economic Might, if it wishes to keep its Military Might.

Is Another Breakout Possible?

Hard to image, but with the VIX at a 30 month low and Oil sticking again at $80 a barrel we could see many commodities related stocks break to new highs before we roll over.

USA stock fundamentals have been improving. Even if the top lines are not expected to grow, profits will, resulting from two years of layoffs and hiring freezes. This market has been like a snowball rolling downhill and picking up momentum as it goes. It just feels like the worst case scenario near term is only a 5% downside risk. But of course, that's for the aggregate market, not individual stocks. Still plenty of 10-20% pull-back risk in individual stocks. At this point in the game I'd beware playing break-outs and look more for quality names in a pull-back (falling wedge patterns)e.g. Exxon. U.S. Steel for example is back at the top of it's range. It's been climbing for two months to reach new 12 month highs. Purhaps the US declaring China is dumping steel and plans a small but important tariff caused US Steel (X) to hit those highs. Long term you know USA steel is in recover but you can also see how easy it was for it to fall back 20% last fall. Note how it dropped 20% even as the market continued to climb.

Keep an eye on those individual stock trendlines and range bands. I've seen to many market tech. newbies only recommending buying individual stocks on breakouts to new highs. At this point in the game thats a very high risk play. Best to buy cyclical stocks only after a falling wedge pullback. I read two Seeking Alpha gurus telling people to by POT after it had a 30-35% run up. POT and gold stocks (GG, ABX) where at the top of their buy list two months ago. Why can't these guys right these articles before the 30-35% run up? As expected the big boys sold into those new breakouts and the stocks just fell back down 20-25% making those recomendations look stupid and sending the sheep to their financial death in a roaing bull market. But you can bet as they hit those imaginary support lines the big boys come into to buy them again. Note how deepwater drillers RIG, DO and ESV had been in a fallen wedge pattern like Steel stock X and Bank stocks C and BAC since early fall. All these stocks began climbing again in December when it was clear oil was not falling below $70.

Now steel stocks like X have hit new highs. I sold my US Steel(X)much to early into this advance. Health care providers like AFAM and AMED hit new highs. Two weeks ago the deepwater drillers began their climb and oil transport tanker FRO is holding close to highs. Now the drybulks shippers like DRYS, GNK and DSX are showing strenght and look set to move backup to their highs from a few months ago.



Over the last three months little money has been made on betting on any 10% move in the index up or down. The market is so stable it's hard to make money with the ususal ETFs. Best to look for turning points and pull backs. One ETF I've continued to make money with in spite of it's issues is Natural Gas play UNG. It fell all last year but on three occassions I made money buying at new low extremes and selling into the bounces that always followed. This year with a recovering economy and winter cold snap I'm betting the institutional buyers will be pushing this into a new upward trend.

In a steady eddie stable market the money has beem made in selling cyclical stocks reaching new highs and buying those stocks on major sector(falling wedge)pull backs.

One need only look at the charts of Steel stock X or Oil driller RIG and ESV along with refiners to see examples. At this point I'm selling airline CAL which recently hit new highs to buy Exxon (XOM) and more drybulk shipping. I loaded the boat on the dog with fleas stock Citi (C) along with a little BAC and GE on this most recent pull back. No need to sell them until they return to their old highs of last year. No need to worry about any panic sell-off in the first quarter like last year with bank stocks.

Health care and big pharma stocks like PFE (3.5% yield) and LLY (5.5%) paying high stable dividends are safe value plays. Lots of telecom dividend plays, with VZ yielding 5.5% and VOD with 5.5%. Korean play SKM and China Mobile paying 3.5% in a strong growth markets have fallen back from last summers highs. I recently picked up both shares alone with steady eddie MO. With USA money market funds paying less than 1/2% any steady eddie 3.5% or higher dividend play is a safe bet in this market.

The Future Of : Made In The USA

Watch it on CNBC tonight....Meeting of the Minds: Rebuilding America

Premieres Wednesday, December 2nd 8p ET

Manufacturing led the United States to become the richest nation in the world and has been the foundation of the middle class. But times have changed and today's economy values innovation and design over manual labor -- emphasizing mind over matter. This sea of change has spurred many questions: Are the manufacturing jobs in the US gone forever? Does an economy that doesn't produce anything have any real value and has 'Made in the USA' died, taking with it the soul of our country? CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo gathers some of the most influential leaders in manufacturing for a Meeting of the Minds at Carnegie Mellon University to answer those questions and plan for the industry’s future.

The CEO of GE points out an interesting fact: Germany exports are 40% of GDP and it has a more expensive labor force than the USA. The USA now only exports 7% of GDP down from 25% just 10 years ago. The CEO of Nucor points out that it's America's failed trade policies that has been distroying the middle class not the unions.

Here are just a very few moments from the business special. Forgive the commercial. I was unable to remove it from the free videos:

A steelworker asks GE CEO Jeff Immelt where the constant outsourcing of American jobs is likely to lead this country.


Unions are the focus of this comment by Bill Ford of the Ford Motor Company, who fields a difficult question from a student. Mr. Ford forgets to explain to the student VW is a higher cost Union shop than the USA.


GE CEO Jeff Immelt has a number of suggestions for how America can move beyond its current manufacturing crisis and get back on track.


Discussing America's once-great manufacturing base, and Nucor Steel CEO DiMicco's comment to one of the steelworkers in the audience, with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.


Students, steelworkers and businessmen discuss the US manufacturing crisis. Bill Ford offers special advice to students.

Death Of A City - 1/2 Million Buys Silverdome

A once great domed football stadium built as just one part of the Detroit MI area mid-70's reveal plan just sold for about 1 percent of what it cost to build.

China, India, Kuwait take note. You want a deal on real-estate? Do you want to buy at prices below the usual going-out-of-business 65% off everything? How about prices at 90% off?

The Pontiac Silverdome — once home to the NFL’s Detroit Lions — was just sold for $583,000, or about 1% of the $55.7 million it took to build in 1975.

The Silverdome, an 80,300-seat stadium located in Pontiac, Mich., is the latest example of how comprehensively the recession has socked southeastern Michigan.

Mass layoffs and automotive plant closures have wreaked havoc on the local economy. Budget deficits are deep, foreclosures are widespread, and the population shrinking – from about 2 million people in the 1960s to about 900,000 today.

As a former Michigander and Detroit resident I'm sadden by the death of the area. The once great Silverdome stadium may be a metaphor for the state of business and employment in Detroit MI.

Here are just a few other examples of the death of a city.

When I worked in the Detroit area the K-Mart headquarters was a shiny new showpiece (employing thousands)and business was booming. K-Mart filed bankruptcy in 2002.

Rockwell International(my Detroit employer) was number 27 on the Fortune 100 corporation list. Rockwell International had a workforce of over 100,000, organized into nine major divisions. By 2001 what was left of Rockwell was split into two smaller companies.

Just 10 years ago most believed GM was at the top of its game, a much leaner and more efficient company from the 70's and now their bankrupt.

Michigan unemployment now exceeds 15%, but real unemployment in the whole Detroit metro area is at depression levels (25%). It's just one more example in a long string of examples of the shifting sands of world economic fortunes.

Death of a Great City, an article written in September by Daniel Okrent, a Detroit native, outlines the city's economic plight and compares it to a natural disaster we all recall, hurricane Katrina, which devastated the city of New Orleans.

" Three years after Katrina devastated New Orleans, unemployment in that city hit a peak of 11%. In Detroit, the unemployment rate is 28.9%. That's worth spelling out: twenty-eight point. Unemployment in Pontiac is at 35.0%."

He concludes with:

"...the story of Detroit is not simply one of a great city's collapse. It's also about the erosion of the industries that helped build the country we know today. The ultimate fate of Detroit will reveal much about the character of America in the 21st century. If what was once the most prosperous manufacturing city in the nation has been brought to its knees, what does that say about our recent past? And if it can't find a way to get up, what does that say about our future?"

Brasil is Hot -Part 2

Here is the editor of Intelligence Report discussing why he likes Brazil. This follows on the heals of my prior post on Brasil.

Richard C. Young, editor of Intelligence Report, says Brazil is an emerging economic power with a stable democracy and a healthy financial system.

As an investment destination, Brazil offers profound promise. Slightly smaller than the continental US, Brazil [has] a population of 190 million. More than half the population is now considered middle-class by Brazilian standards.

Unlike many emerging-market countries, Brazil is not overly dependent on commodities or exports. Its economy is highly diversified, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for 60% of [gross domestic product] and exports accounting for only 14.3% of GDP. Manufactured goods account for 60% of exports. Brazil is the world's seventh-largest manufacturer of automobiles and the fourth-largest manufacturer of airplanes.

Brazil is the only BRIC nation that is both a stable democracy and at peace with all its neighbors. Brazil's financial system is healthy: Total credit to GDP is only 41%. Brazil has $233 billion in foreign exchange reserves, which is equal to 19 months of imports and fully covers the country's public and private external debt.

Brazil is also endowed with natural resources. It is the world's leading exporter of iron ore, coffee, soy, orange juice, beef, chicken, sugar, and ethanol. Brazil has 958 million acres of highly productive arable land, with 222 million acres that have yet to be farmed. The country generates 73% of its energy needs from hydroelectric power. Brazil is also home to one of the ten largest oil reserves in the world, the Tupi field.

Decades of recurring turmoil, arcane lending laws, and high inflation have kept Brazil's economy underleveraged. Mortgage debt in Brazil is equal to only 2.5% of GDP, compared to 80% in the US. There is huge pent-up demand waiting to be unlocked in the housing sector. Mexico, which has 60% of the population of Brazil, builds four times as many homes.

Lower interest rates and changes to lending laws are likely to unlock Brazil's pent-up demand for housing over the coming decade. Falling interest rates have already begun to unlock credit growth in consumer loans—65% of car purchases are now made on credit, and purchases with credit cards have been growing at 22% annually during the past decade.

Brazil has always had great potential, but has consistently managed to stumble. Change is now under way. Inflation has been tamed, the state has found an acceptable balance with private industry, excessive government debt is no longer a problem, and stability has returned to the economy. A more stable Brazil should result in higher earnings multiples on Brazilian stocks, lower interest rates on Brazilian debt, and a more valuable currency.

You should continue to expect wicked volatility when investing in Brazil. The government still has its hands deep in the private economy, as evidenced most recently by the implementation of a tax on capital inflows. Plus, while Brazil is headed toward developed market status, it is not there yet. Begin with a starter position in Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap (NYSEArca: BRF) or iShares MSCI Brazil (NYSEArca: EWZ), and add to your position on dips.

USA Unemployment Hits 26 Year High

The American unemployment rate surged to 10.2 percent in October, its highest level in 26 years, as the economy lost another 190,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The nation’s jobless swelled to 15.7 million. Since late 2007, payroll employment has fallen by about 7.3 million. Only 1.8 million jobs were lost in the 2001 recession. So, this is 3 times worse. More than a third of the nation’s unemployed — 35.6% — have been out of work long-term, defined by the Labor Department as a period of 27 weeks or more — that's the highest proportion since World War II.

The jump into the realm of double-digit joblessness— provided a sobering reminder that, despite the apparent "technical" end of the Great Recession, economic expansion has yet to translate into jobs, leaving tens of millions of people still struggling. And many with a job are wondering if their next.

The labor situation is actually worse than what these figures and the 10.2% rate show. The government doesn't count as officially unemployed the so-called discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs -- which in October numbered 808,000, up from 484,000 a year earlier.

There also were 9.3 million people who reported they had little choice but to work part time because their hours had been cut or they could not find full-time jobs. If this group and discouraged workers are included, along with others on the fringe of the labor market, the nation's unemployment and underemployment rate in October was 17.5%.

The last time the jobless rate crossed double digits was during the recession and initial recovery period of the early 1980s. Then, unemployment hit 10.1% in September 1982 and stayed at or above that level, rising to a high of 10.8%, until June the following year. This time around, unemployment has risen even faster and, by many analysts' and economists' predictions, could hold above 9% through 2010.

While it seems counter intuitive the stock market in 1982 was similar to 2009, as it also rose over 60% -even as unemployment was rising. Now let's hope the 2010 stock market is more like 2004 then 2002 market. Even, some market bulls find it hard to believe (with this recession dwarfing 2001) that we are at levels above DJIA 10,000.

The Committee Failed America

In 1987 Ronald Reagan's, anti-government free-markets philosophy had gained a solid foothold in the American economic physic.

The newly appointed federal reserve chairman Alan Greenspan (an Arthur Burns protégé) subscribe to economist Milton Friedman and philosopher Ayn Rand's laissez-faire philosophy of no government intervention.

In the early 90's a powerful private financial committee was formed in Washington D.C. to promote the free-financial markets philosophy and to overturn the last great regulation hold-out from the 1930's financial crisis, the Glass-Steagall Act. The boys title for the bill was 'The Financial Modernization Act.' And so if you don't want to modernize, I guess you're considered hopelessly old fashioned."

By 1999 TIME's World section, takes you inside the most powerful economic triangle in Washington in its cover story on the Committee to Save the World, a.k.a. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

The Glass-Steagall Act was created after the first great financial crisis

The Glass-Steagall Act is the Depression-era law that separated commercial and investment banking. It was functionally repealed in 1998, when Travelers (the parent company of Salomon Smith Barney) acquired Citicorp. And it was officially repealed in 1999. And just seven years later the world found itself in another 1930's style worldwide financial crisis.

Recent events on Wall Street...the failure or sale of three of the five largest independent investment banks-have effectively turned back the clock to the 1920s, when investment banks and commercial banks cohabited under the same corporate umbrella.

Ironically the very ideology that said monopolies are bad and capitalism should allow bad businesses to fail...failed us. In the end we had private Capitalism of profits and excessive compensation but when the losses from those bad decisions came they were Socialized with taxpayer money. Amazingly both right and left wingers came together to say, "No Bail-Outs". Yet, the fear of systemic risk ( finance code for risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market ) seemed so great two presidents of two parties came to the same conclusion, government action not in action was required.

The architects of that failed philosophy now get promoted to clean up the mess. Thank you, Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers. These boys have make a great political living for themselves. Here is just one recent article on Larry Summers connections.

The Young Turk Gives Greenspan Advice


Last October Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman, at a hearing on Capitol Hill (during the financial crisis) makes a profound self discovery. Greenspan Concedes a possible flaw in his thought process. This is classic Greenspan. He's incapable of admitting mistakes were made. Instead he carefully admits there may be a "flaw" in his ideology that says less financial regulation is always better for the public. He talks as if his decisions were based upon scientific models and rocket science rather than personal opinion.

Alan Greenspan is a classical intellectual. He's ideally suited to discuss macroeconomic issues, musical history and Adam Smith or Ayn Rand philosophy. Unfortunately that background is of little value in monitoring the realities of microeconomic details and human nature. He's not the type of detail oriented person you need to develop a minimal intrusive yet efficient and effective regulation system to protect America. And paradoxically the man who believed in free-markets and Laissez-Faire/hands-off government was in charge of the Federal Reserve, an entity created by government.

Over the last 10 years I've had the pleasure of listening to Treasury Wizard Greenspan speak many times. He is the master of grace and speaks with such elegance. Greenspan, a musician at heart, could make words dance to please democrats and republicans alike. Unlike others, I do not blame a few men or one party for the greatest financial crisis of our lifetime. There is plenty of blame to go around in Washington D.C., Wall Street and on Main Street. What's done is done. The question is will anything change for the better?

Listen to the PBS Frontline Special Report ( $25 DVD Video) for free (while we still have the viewing rights) below.

Shattering Glass-Steagall

The Senators, Economist and Glass-Steagall

Worldwide Bounce Back

The worldwide recession appears to have ended, with surveys showing manufacturing activity is on the rise nearly everywhere. “It is the emerging markets that are leading, with the U.S. following and Europe lagging,” said Chris Williamson, the chief economist of Markit, a company that surveys manufacturers in many countries.

The surveys, conducted in the United States by the Institute of Supply Management and in other countries by Markit, measure not the level of manufacturing output but the way it is changing. The surveys have a reputation for showing turns in the economy, often before other indicators do. In the charts above, the index figures have been converted to show the number of points over or under 50 for each of 12 countries, from the end of 2007 through September.

While details vary, the slump was sharp in nearly every country, reflecting the sudden decline that came after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. That worsened a credit squeeze, which meant some companies had no choice but to cut back on everything they could, from inventories to marketing expenditures to jobs. Others, fearing that the economic outlook could become much worse, cut back voluntarily.

It now appears that companies cut too much, and the surveys of manufacturing show that companies are expanding in most countries. Over all, the surveys indicate that the manufacturing sectors of China, Taiwan, South Korea and India had begun to grow by April, but that the United States did not follow suit until August.

Source: New York Times

New Unemployment Claims Show Hope

You can forget using cold heartless statistics to define the difference between a recession and depression for a family. Former President Harry S. Truman defined it best without using one number. He said, "It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours."

Yes, unemployment is now standing at 9.8% and that's bad. I'm not here to paint you a rosy economic picture. But one must always keep in mind night is followed by day. Actual unemployment is considered a lagging indicator while changes in weekly unemployment claims is considered a leading indicator of what's to come. And there we are seeing signs of light on the horizon. Signs that daylight is coming.

This chart shows weekly claims as a % of the total workforce. That percentage dipped with last week's report to its lowest level for the year. Comparing the severity of this recession to others based on this metric, we are in better shape now than in the recessions of '74-'75 and '81-'82. The economy is now about 3 months into a recovery with a workforce disruption metric that has fallen to 0.42%. It took almost one year of recovery for that same metric to drop to this level following the '81-'82recession, and almost 18 months of recovery following the '74-'75 recession.

Now, I find this little speck of light positive for another reason. Back in the 70's and 80's it was easier to have a more powerful job creation uptick when the economy was improving due to the lack of outsourcing jobs to foreign countries back then. It would also be interesting to know how high the underemployment rate reached back then compare to now.

If anyone has any additional interesting facts to add about last weeks unemployment report, please let us know. Here is the official American September Unemployment Report for all to see.

The 80's vs 2009 Economy

Did you think a 6.5% mortgage rate was high? How would you like a 1981 18.5% mortgage rate?

You can bet those 1981 Paul Volcker (Treasury Secretary) induced interest rates prevented the housing bubble created by the 2001-2005 monetary policy.

This chart is for all those not old enough to experience truly high interest rates and those who forgot how we earned 9-12% risk free in our Bank CD's back in 1981. Back then it paid to take no investment risk.

Today there is around $3.5 trillion dollars inside mutual fund MMFs earning just a speck more than zero (1/4%). Today is the inverse of 1981. The savers are subsidizing consumer spending, business borrowing and the big federal government bail-outs for the financial industry.

So, if you happen to be in this boat, go find yourself a good dividend paying mutual fund or portfolio of high quality dividend paying stocks in different industries. Stocks like Lilly (LLY) or Verizon (VZ) which both pay 6% yields and give you the possibility of appreciation. Neither of these two stocks have not participated in the markets 55% because they were considered defensive stocks by money managers.

Here are some recent articles on dividend paying stocks worth reading.

Dividend stocks for low excitement, high returns

The World's Best Dividend Stocks

Seeking Alpha dividend stock articles

disclosure: On 9/23/09 I invested in Lilly and Verizon.

Why It's Not 1982 Again

Two Cases For A Continued Bull Market, Ronald Reagan style. Both cases made by two very qualified sane men based upon the 1982 Economy and Bull Market begining. But, as much as I wish it to be true, I'm afraid I must agree with other less optimistic Economist and Novelist Thomas Wolfe who concluded "You Can't Go Home Again". Still, the Perma-Bears need to face the trillion dollar fact. There is a trillion dollars inside money market mutual funds earning less than 1/2% looking to be invested on any little pull-back. Yes, it's possible we stay in Bull mode through year end on are way back to pre-Lehman Brother levels. Still, the 2001-2002 market is fresh in my memory and my worry.

Excerpts from James Grants Sept. 19th, 2009 article: From Bull to Bear. James Grant argues the latest gloomy forecasts ignore an important lesson of history: The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery. Even more amazing is the fact James Grant is a student of financial history and Perma-Bear who just been converted to a Bull believer.

"...Knocked for a loop, we forget a truism. With regard to the recession that precedes the recovery, worse is subsequently better. The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery. To quote a dissenter from the forecasting consensus, Michael T. Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners, Greenwich, Conn.: "The most important determinant of the strength of an economy recovery is the depth of the downturn that preceded it. There are no exceptions to this rule, including the 1929-1939 period."

"Growth snapped back following the depressions of 1893-94, 1907-08, 1920-21 and 1929-33. If ugly downturns made for torpid recoveries, as today's economists suggest, the economic history of this country would have to be rewritten.
...
At the business trough in 1933," Mr. Darda points out, "the unemployment rate stood at 25% (if there had been a 'U6' version of labor under utilization then, it likely would have been about 44% vs. 16.8% today. . . ). At the same time, the consumption share of GDP was above 80% in 1933 and the household savings rate was negative. Yet, in the four years that followed, the economy expanded at a 9.5% annual average rate while the unemployment rate dropped 10.6 percentage points.
...
Our recession, though a mere inconvenience compared to some of the cyclical snows of yesteryear, does bear comparison with the slump of 1981-82. In the worst quarter of that contraction, the first three months of 1982, real GDP shrank at an annual rate of 6.4%, matching the steepest drop of the current recession, which was registered in the first quarter of 2009. Yet the Reagan recovery, starting in the first quarter of 1983, rushed along at quarterly growth rates (expressed as annual rates of change) over the next six quarters of 5.1%, 9.3%, 8.1%, 8.5%, 8.0% and 7.1%. Not until the third quarter of 1984 did real quarterly GDP growth drop below 5%."

Excerpts from Economist Michael Mussa Sept. 20th, 2009 presentation: Ex-IMF Chief Economist Rosy View as viewed by Kevin Hall -

"The recession is over and a global recovery is under way," he began, unveiling a pile of data and historical charts to support his view that forecasters regularly underestimate recoveries – and are doing so again.

Where the IMF foresees just 0.6 percent year-over-year growth in 2010 in the U.S. economy and 2.5 percent globally, Mussa sees 3.3 percent growth in the U.S. economy next year and 4.2 percent growth globally. He projects a U.S. growth rate of 4 percent from the middle of this year through the end of 2010.

All forecasts tend to under predict the recovery. … I think that's what we are seeing this time," said Mussa, now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a leading research organization in Washington.
...
Mussa pointed to forecasts made at the end of the 1981-1982 recession, the closest approximation to today's deep downturn. ...

The Reagan administration projected a growth rate from December 1982 to December 1983 of 3.1 percent, as did the Federal Reserve. In fact, the real growth rate turned out to be 6.3 percent."

Two excellent articles -with one common comparison flaw. They both use the 1982 Ronald Regan bull market beginning to make their case but ignore what happen in 2002 after a much smaller recession ended in 2001.

Both point to how Economist were too pessimistic in their growth forecast and correctly pointing out how the actual recovery starting in 1983 had six quarters of outstanding GDP growth (5.1%, 9.3%, 8.1%, 8.5%, 8.0% and 7.1%).

They make an excellent point about Economist forecast but even rosy glasses Ex-Chief Economist Mussa is forecasting only 3.3% GDP for the USA next year.

This leads me to ask three questions:

1. How can 3.3% 2010 GDP led to six quarters of quarterly growth like the 1983 time period they reference?

2. Why do they ignore what happen in 2002 when the market declined for three straight quarters back to the 2001 lows, after the recession official ended in 2001?

3. Is America's 2009 economy similar to 1982-83?

Unfortunately (for me) 2009 is not like the 1973-83 stagflation economy. Back then Treasury Secretary Paul Volcker's needed to crush inflation with the highest interest rates in American history. ( I wishes this was 1982 so my savings would be earning 9-12% in my MMFs instead of 0.25%. I feel like I've been robbed by the 2001-2009 federal reserve policy ) .

If you are under 40 and think mortgage rates are a little high take a look at the 1979 to 1981 Bank Prime Rate in America. Notice how in 1981 the banks started lowing the Prime Rate (resulting from the Federal Reserve lowering the discount rates) from 20%to 11% in 1983. Yes, I said 20%.

This move alone allowed Stocks to rise as the value of each dollar of revenue or profit became more valuable in a lower inflation and interest rate environment. This phenomenon is call P/E expansion. You can see the proof from 1982 to 1999 as the average Standard & Poor Stock P/E rose from 7 to 32 as inflation and interest rates declined and the economy became more robust.

The decline from 20% in 1981 to 11% in 1983 also generated that fantastic six quarters of high GDP growth. I'd conclude that cannot be repeated in this environment.

Now just think about Car, Clothing and Appliance sales in 1982. The big three were all American. Imports were a much small percentage back in 1982. Today most appliances and clothing (just to give two examples) would be made outside America. In 1982 as those lower interest rates increased sales, American factories employed more American workers, who in turn had more money to buy more stuff (of which a much higher percent was made in America and nothing was made in communist China or Vietnam).

Now flash forward: Federal Reserve discount rates are already close to ZERO (no spending is being held back by high interest rates like 1981-82). Consumer debt is still at high levels and a recession like this causes even dual income employed families to want to spend less. Today when Americans do spend more money a much larger percentage goes to employing people outside America (than 1982-83).

Janet L. Yellen President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (far more qualified then I) sees no comparison. And Nobel Prize Economist Paul Krugman explains why there is no comparison using the same logic.

"A lot of what we think we know about recession and recovery comes from the experience of the 70s and 80s. But the recessions of that era were very different from the recessions since. Each of the slumps — 1969-70, 1973-75, and the double-dip slump from 1979 to 1982 — were caused, basically, by high interest rates imposed by the Fed to control inflation. In each case housing tanked, then bounced back when interest rates were allowed to fall again.

... Post-moderation recessions haven’t been deliberately engineered by the Fed, they just happen when credit bubbles or other things get out of hand. And that means that the Fed can't just cut interest rates and boost housing. This recession is very different than the early '80s".

The Bottom Line

NO, this is not the beginning of the 1982-87, Ronald Reagan, Bull Market style economy. No I'm no Bear, just a Bull (on tip toes) who remembers the 2001-2002 market. Yes, we can defy gravity and remain in Bull mode for the remainder of the year. Still, this decade will not be remembered for the great American Bull Run. This decade will be remembered as the decade for emerging market stocks.

1982 will be remember for many things like the Jackson Thriller album.



July 27, 1982 | GetBack Media

Shared via AddThis

Economic Indicators all Positive for the First Time Since November 2007

Philadelphia Fed -- The region’s manufacturing sector is showing some signs of stabilizing, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered slightly positive readings this month. For the first time since November 2007, all of the survey’s broad indicators were positive.

Although firms reported continued declines in employment and work hours this month, losses were not as widespread. Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future activity continued to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect business activity to increase over the next six months.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from ‐7.5 in July to 4.2 this month. This is the highest reading of the index since November 2007 (see chart above). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity (27%) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting decreases (23%). Other broad indicators also suggested improvement. The current new orders index edged six points higher, from ‐2.2 to 4.2, also its highest reading since November 2007. The current shipments index increased 10 points, to a slightly positive reading.



August 30th 2009 bloomberg report.

The World Wide Stock Market Recovery

World stock markets rallied on Thursday, with London following Wall Street, striking its highest level so far this year, as investors grew more optimistic about the prospects for a global economic recovery.

Tokyo shares surged 1.68 percent on Thursday, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street where New York stocks climbed to the highest level in 11 months on upbeat factory data. Markets were also lifted by rising commodity prices which gave a shot in the arm to the energy and mining sectors.

Elsewhere in Asia on Thursday, Hong Kong jumped 1.71 percent, boosted by resource stocks on the back of rising commodity prices, dealers said.

Chinese shares closed up 2.02 percent on Thursday, also led by oil and metal stocks.

The USA economy and employment outlook may be an L shape or W shape recovery. But for now the world markets are clearly in a V shape recovery mode similiar to 2003. Lets hope it's not similiar to 2001 when we had a major market recovery after the 9/11 market colapse only to decline back down in 2002.



The MSCI World Stock Market Index reached a new 11-month high yesterday, rising to the highest level since early last October. From the March bottom, the index is up by 65% (see chart above).



The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index reached a two-high yesterday, closing at the highest level since August 8, 2007 (see chart below).

Sales Up - TED Spread Down - New Market High

CNBC's Larry Kudlow looks at indicators of an economic recovery, including the TED spread. Larry breaks down the details of the recent positive economy sales report.

The TED spread is the difference between the risk-free three-month T-bill interest rate and three-month LIBOR (includes a credit risk premium), and is considered to be a good indicator of the overall amount of perceived credit risk in the economy.

A year ago on September 15, 2009 the TED Spread jumped by 65.5 basis points (from 134.855 bps to 200.3588 bps) as Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and fears about credit risk soared. Two days later on September 17 as fears about credit and financial risk intensified, the TED Spread jumped by another 82.6 basis points (bps) to more than 300 bps, setting a new record (back to at least 1990) for the largest one-day increase in the TED spread (that record still stands), and setting a new record for the highest TED Spread to date.



At the height of the financial crisis about a month later, the TED Spread hit 456.485basis points on October 13, 2008, an all-time record. As the credit and financial markets have gradually healed, the TED Spread has fallen by more than 450 bps to the current level of about 15.75 bps, the lowest level in more than 5 years, since June 8, 2004 (see chart above). One more sign that the recession has ended.

No doubt these positive economic signs were responsible for the VIX index ( a measure of fear in the stock market) hitting a new low and the USA stock market hitting a new high on Wednesday.

Yes - There Is Economic Life

More signs of economic life seen.

This week in addition to the improving economic signs contained within the Federal Reserve Beige Book Report, two more measures of improving optimism were released. And Friday's news from FedEx and Cliffs Natural Resources was more proof of the existence of green shoots.

Now we often have to remind researchers that what consumers say and do can be two very different things. Still, in an economy driven 70% by consumer spending consumer and small business owner sentiment is important.

Consumer Sentiment Continues to Rise

1st - The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 70.2 this month from 65.7 in August. This increase exceeded expectations. The University of Michigan measure of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars and homes is part one of the survey. Part two - The index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending also rose.

Small Business Owners Becoming Optimistic About Future

2nd -The National Federation of Independent Business, which surveys its members each month, said its index of business owner optimism rose 2.1 points to 88.6 in August, an increase that NFIB chief economist William Dunkelberg called "a big gain." The optimism, though, is about the future, as owners still have a dim view of current economic conditions. Dunkelberg noted that small businesses generally aren't planning big capital expenditures or to start hiring again. "First you have to feel better before you'll spend your money," Dunkelberg said

Sales Rose And Inventory Declined.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said orders for durable goods — products that are meant to last a number of years — soared in July at the fastest pace in two years. Orders in the transportation sector had their biggest gain in nearly three years. No-doubt that was the result of cash-for-clunkers which is now over.

In yet another sign that future business should improve A Commerce Department report showed wholesalers’ inventories fell again in July, after a drop in June. Wholesale inventories have had the longest series of declines since records began in 1987. Given durable goods sales, have rose for three consecutive months, the belief is firms will need more workers to build inventories back up.

Friday's News from FedEx and Cliffs Resources showed two more positive signs

We closed the week with FedEx tacked on $4.66, or 6.4%, to 77.32, after the package delivery giant said its fiscal first-quarter earnings will exceed its previous expectations and projected a profit this quarter above analysts' estimates as the company benefits from international improvement.

And Cliffs Natural Resources rose $2.13, or 7.6%, to 30.23, after saying it expects its North American iron-ore and coal sales this year to be slightly better than it previously thought as customers increase steel production.

5 Reasons Bulls and Bears Disagree

Can the S&P 500 make it back to Pre-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels before a major correction?

The last September 14 S&P levels of around 1,200 is where the bulls now argue is the market's fair value. That target is of particular interest and importance to bulls who note that was the level prior to the Lehman Brothers failure, which was the brick that broke the market's porcelain camel's back.

Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on September 15, 2008. The news caused the DJIA to closed down just over 500 points in one day. This resulted in a financial nuclear chain reaction with Lehman's counterparties and financial markets. This was a bankruptcy with world-wide implications that lead to freezing credit markets; tumbling commercial real-estate values; panic in the junk bond markets; accelerated selling in commodities stocks; and increased financial service sector lay-offs in anticipation of a world-wide recession. Let's not forget to add - fear of the next great depression.

I must confess I was of the opinion the S&P would max-out at 1,000 (at best) before enduring a reasonable pullback of around 5% in August or September. But then a Bull gored me from behind and called to my attention the impact the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy had on the market. This logic had me reconsidering my positions but then, without warning, a Bear roars - get a grip on reality, bonehead. So I recorded their 5 best shots of logic.

The bulls' logic for a return to S&P 500 pre-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels:

1. The so-called Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of bank reluctance to lend, has narrowed to 28 basis points from 364 basis points on Oct. 10 2008. Greenspan said in June 2008 that he wouldn’t consider credit markets back to “normal” until the Libor-OIS spread narrowed to 25 basis points. Libor-OIS also became a barometer of fears of bank insolvency.

2. The VIX index, the volatility and nicknamed fear index has been trending downward for 8 months. Before the Lehman bankruptcy the VIX was around 22 and after the bankruptcy rose to a all-time high 80 level. Today, the bulls argue, it's holding around 26 only in anticipation of a quick correction after July's large run up. They rationalize it should fall to 22 given the credit crisis is at least as good as pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels.

3. The current bare bones inventory levels will force companies to resupply now and for upcoming Christmas season. Rising consumer confidence levels, $8,000 for new home buyers, $4,500 cash for clunkers, Government Stimulus package, stabilizing unemployment levels, ISM reports, world markets, all point to rising spending and restocking.

4. The weak dollar and healthy Asian and India economies will once again improve our exports while our recession has curtained our import spending thus reducing our balance of trade deficits.

5. GDP in the 3ed and 4th quarter will show a major improvement over the 1st quarter rising from a Negative 6% to a forecasted 2.5%. This would also be a major improvement over 2008 which had a less than 1/2% GDP (after revisions). See my prior post on World Green Shoots Economic Indicators.

The bears' scream that the current 50% rally is already built on a slope of hope and it's time for a correction:

1. Real Unemployment in the USA is near 16.8% when you consider the people working part-time who were full-time and those who are not counted simply because their eligibility for benefits ran out. The first wave of big reductions in eligibility will come in September 2009. And the USA is still an economy based upon consumer spending. One in three unemployed people, or five million people, have been jobless for 27 weeks or more.

2. No job growth, no spending improvement. So what if job losses were less than expected in July or bottoming out? If employers are not hiring back workers, there will be less consumer spending overall until the jobs return. And right now the market is higher than 2002 when significantly less workers were out of work and the housing sector was booming and the financial sector was considered on solid ground.

3. Banks must make loans to people who can repay. Gone are the 2001-2005 days of no-documentation loans and instant approval and fast money for everyone. The banker bubble economics that stimulated spending and GDP is gone.

4. Everyone is deleveraging. Unlike the 1999-2002 market decline, the consumer was still spending as half as many people were unemployed and easy money and job stability encouraged spending. This pulled us out of the hole and lead to a steady market advance back to the 1999 S&P 500 1550 levels by 2007. But this time around it's the reverse - both institutions and individuals are deleveraging and reducing their spending.

5. Insider Selling is at its highest level since October 2007 (the market top). Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research: In their latest issue, received Monday afternoon, Vickers reported that the ratio of insider selling to insider buying last week was 4.16-to-1, the highest the ratio has been since October 2007.

At this point even many bulls expect a 3-5% pullback before resuming the climb to S&P 1,200 before year-end. The bears say that's just the beginning of a major correction as we enter the market's notoriously bearish months of September and October.

The Bulls and Bears each gave me five good reasons. Now let us hear your reasons