Friday, November 6, 2009

USA Unemployment Hits 26 Year High



The American unemployment rate surged to 10.2 percent in October, its highest level in 26 years, as the economy lost another 190,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The nation’s jobless swelled to 15.7 million. Since late 2007, payroll employment has fallen by about 7.3 million. Only 1.8 million jobs were lost in the 2001 recession. So, this is 3 times worse. More than a third of the nation’s unemployed — 35.6% — have been out of work long-term, defined by the Labor Department as a period of 27 weeks or more — that's the highest proportion since World War II.

The jump into the realm of double-digit joblessness— provided a sobering reminder that, despite the apparent "technical" end of the Great Recession, economic expansion has yet to translate into jobs, leaving tens of millions of people still struggling. And many with a job are wondering if their next.

The labor situation is actually worse than what these figures and the 10.2% rate show. The government doesn't count as officially unemployed the so-called discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs -- which in October numbered 808,000, up from 484,000 a year earlier.

There also were 9.3 million people who reported they had little choice but to work part time because their hours had been cut or they could not find full-time jobs. If this group and discouraged workers are included, along with others on the fringe of the labor market, the nation's unemployment and underemployment rate in October was 17.5%.

The last time the jobless rate crossed double digits was during the recession and initial recovery period of the early 1980s. Then, unemployment hit 10.1% in September 1982 and stayed at or above that level, rising to a high of 10.8%, until June the following year. This time around, unemployment has risen even faster and, by many analysts' and economists' predictions, could hold above 9% through 2010.

While it seems counter intuitive the stock market in 1982 was similar to 2009, as it also rose over 60% -even as unemployment was rising. Now let's hope the 2010 stock market is more like 2004 then 2002 market. Even, some market bulls find it hard to believe (with this recession dwarfing 2001) that we are at levels above DJIA 10,000.

2 comments:

  1. I think you mentioned an important point about Government numbers and the real unemployment...In my opinion, you can add 2-3 percentage points to the employment rate given by the government...

    As for economic recovery, there is surely some bounce back in the economy in Q3 2009 and the same is expected for Q4 2009...

    However, for the better of U.S. and for the world, we have to hope that the recovery is more sustainable and the Government does not have to come out with another stimulus to keep the economy going...

    ReplyDelete
  2. The 17.5% is now discussed in the USA BLS monthly report. Detroit MI. is well over 20%. And while I would have expected major layoffs to have stopped this summer, we now have some companies who are now into a second smaller round of layoffs. One stock I bought today, EA just announced another 1,500 layoff and GE is closing down it's small Solar Panel USA devision. Lilly another company I own has announced a 5,000 cut....the list goes on albeit much smaller than before but still a steady drip. We are having a technical recovery but due to the trends I've discussed it will be a jobless recovery. I've know people who have never been laid-off now out of work. America and Europe will be hardest hit. China and India will have far more job growth as a result of decade old trends. I discuss it in more details on my FINANCE 3.0 blog. http://www.finance30.com/profiles/blog/list?user=39yogtkt12l5w

    ReplyDelete