Pause or Pull Back Time ?

Ok, so we made some more money, now what? Hold'em or fold'em? I'm in agreement with Mr. DoJo above. I'll keep it simple. The probability of another two weeks like the last two is slim and none. I hate to try to play the market timing game but after a monumental run up this is a better time to sell than buy. At best I'd guess we have a sideways zigzag trending to the downside. So if you're in an index type fund and want to be safe rather than sorry sell Monday or into the next up day.

Now this is not to say in a pull back all stocks will fall. No. Some stocks will hold ground and some will even rise. But can you tell me which ones? If you're smart enough to know which ones those are please post your picks for all to see. Since I'm not that smart I'd say if you want to hold or buy some stock now than first look at those blue chips paying fat dividends which have not enjoyed any big increases like BP, XOM, LLY, VZ, T, PFE and MO. Utilities can work here too.

The oil sector service stocks that were sizzling hot in 2009's first two quarters look sick and weak. Still if you get a chance to buy RIG or DO around $80 or below do so. Mr. Cramer says buy WFT. The natural gas index UNG declined the whole month of March. While there is good reason not to like this ETF index I'm buying at $7.45-7.50 today. This index has now been declining for two years, so I'm betting my downside risk is low. A related stock pick would be CHK.

So, I'd sum up my view as selling all big winners this month and reinvesting ( or holding)1/3 to 1/2 in the areas I've discussed.

We Got Our Pull Back

The correction may not yet be over but bears were in covering shorts today after a two day 400 point decline. Best to buy on down days and sell on up days until the market shows signs of life again. We've yet to get one 10% correction but this one should come close. Frankly I'd love to see a pull back to 9,500 but 9,800 may be it (for now).

This video calls attention to Exxon as hitting a double bottom. Integrated oil stocks often do poorly in the first year of a market bounce. As the market climbed in 2003 most oil names like Exxon, BP and Marathon were flat in 2003 and didn't start climbing until 2004. They tend to lag the market and refiners have been hurt by the high cost of crude oil and relatively low pump prices. Oil stocks not impacted by refining with bounce potential are DVN and service stocks like SLB.

For those who like safe plays with great dividends time to buy Exxon, Lilly, Verizon and Intel. Other low risk plays at current prices are: DELL, PFE, BAC, HIG. For those who want international safe plays with very fat dividends consider VOD, DT or SKM at current price levels. For those looking for long term growth plays in China consider investing in RINO and YONG at these price levels after a major correction in price to both. The China telecom stocks (CHL and CHA) look very interesting at these prices too. Every since China announced they were tighting up on Bank lending the China market has been falling. The inverse ETF FXP hit a record low this fall but has been climbing upward for eight weeks.

All commodities connected stocks have had a major correction. So if you believe in an improving world economy then it's time to buy stocks like US Steel or Alcoa. US Steel below $43. Natural gas in the USA should hold strong after a two year decline. The ETF UNG has issues but more and more people have been buying into it expecting the USA cold winter to increase demand for NG. Lots of oil service plays look like big values e.g. MRO, HLX and ESV at current prices. The worlds largest deepwater driller RIG is always a great buy on pull backs (below $80 is ideal). For those who want a high risk high reward and high octane possible play, consider AIG right now. It was the talk of the town when it went from $10 to $50 last summer (after a major reverse stock split). It's been falling back all fall and winter. AIG is now back down to $22. Insurance companies have all turned in good earnings reports and if Yahoo's earnings forecast for AIG in 2010 are even close with a current market cap of under five billion I'd expect AIG to have lots of upside potential. Citi at these current prices below $3.50 is another low risk wild card play.

Note: I do a lot of USA TAX work during tax season so my post will be fewer from January through March.

Is Another Breakout Possible?

Hard to image, but with the VIX at a 30 month low and Oil sticking again at $80 a barrel we could see many commodities related stocks break to new highs before we roll over.

USA stock fundamentals have been improving. Even if the top lines are not expected to grow, profits will, resulting from two years of layoffs and hiring freezes. This market has been like a snowball rolling downhill and picking up momentum as it goes. It just feels like the worst case scenario near term is only a 5% downside risk. But of course, that's for the aggregate market, not individual stocks. Still plenty of 10-20% pull-back risk in individual stocks. At this point in the game I'd beware playing break-outs and look more for quality names in a pull-back (falling wedge patterns)e.g. Exxon. U.S. Steel for example is back at the top of it's range. It's been climbing for two months to reach new 12 month highs. Purhaps the US declaring China is dumping steel and plans a small but important tariff caused US Steel (X) to hit those highs. Long term you know USA steel is in recover but you can also see how easy it was for it to fall back 20% last fall. Note how it dropped 20% even as the market continued to climb.

Keep an eye on those individual stock trendlines and range bands. I've seen to many market tech. newbies only recommending buying individual stocks on breakouts to new highs. At this point in the game thats a very high risk play. Best to buy cyclical stocks only after a falling wedge pullback. I read two Seeking Alpha gurus telling people to by POT after it had a 30-35% run up. POT and gold stocks (GG, ABX) where at the top of their buy list two months ago. Why can't these guys right these articles before the 30-35% run up? As expected the big boys sold into those new breakouts and the stocks just fell back down 20-25% making those recomendations look stupid and sending the sheep to their financial death in a roaing bull market. But you can bet as they hit those imaginary support lines the big boys come into to buy them again. Note how deepwater drillers RIG, DO and ESV had been in a fallen wedge pattern like Steel stock X and Bank stocks C and BAC since early fall. All these stocks began climbing again in December when it was clear oil was not falling below $70.

Now steel stocks like X have hit new highs. I sold my US Steel(X)much to early into this advance. Health care providers like AFAM and AMED hit new highs. Two weeks ago the deepwater drillers began their climb and oil transport tanker FRO is holding close to highs. Now the drybulks shippers like DRYS, GNK and DSX are showing strenght and look set to move backup to their highs from a few months ago.



Over the last three months little money has been made on betting on any 10% move in the index up or down. The market is so stable it's hard to make money with the ususal ETFs. Best to look for turning points and pull backs. One ETF I've continued to make money with in spite of it's issues is Natural Gas play UNG. It fell all last year but on three occassions I made money buying at new low extremes and selling into the bounces that always followed. This year with a recovering economy and winter cold snap I'm betting the institutional buyers will be pushing this into a new upward trend.

In a steady eddie stable market the money has beem made in selling cyclical stocks reaching new highs and buying those stocks on major sector(falling wedge)pull backs.

One need only look at the charts of Steel stock X or Oil driller RIG and ESV along with refiners to see examples. At this point I'm selling airline CAL which recently hit new highs to buy Exxon (XOM) and more drybulk shipping. I loaded the boat on the dog with fleas stock Citi (C) along with a little BAC and GE on this most recent pull back. No need to sell them until they return to their old highs of last year. No need to worry about any panic sell-off in the first quarter like last year with bank stocks.

Health care and big pharma stocks like PFE (3.5% yield) and LLY (5.5%) paying high stable dividends are safe value plays. Lots of telecom dividend plays, with VZ yielding 5.5% and VOD with 5.5%. Korean play SKM and China Mobile paying 3.5% in a strong growth markets have fallen back from last summers highs. I recently picked up both shares alone with steady eddie MO. With USA money market funds paying less than 1/2% any steady eddie 3.5% or higher dividend play is a safe bet in this market.

Dec 16th Market Updates

We are back to the top of the channel. Will we fall back a few hundred points or just continue inching our way upward? Health care, home builders and oil service stocks looking strong. A number of possible short-term stock trades are discussed in this video.



Here's another view on the market along with the nose bleed stocks.



Frankly, I'm playing it safe ( meaning holding more defensive or way oversold positions ). The market advanced into the meeting knowing what was going to be said. Now the question is will oil continue to climb back to the high $70's knowing that the fed has no plans to raise interest rates? If oil holds strong there are many oil service plays that have fallen back on oils fall from $79 to $69 to consider. I jumped into WFT, HLX and SUN today but hedged buy selling X, CHK and RIG. Sold my AMED medical stock yesterday as it hit the top of my target but I'll be looking to buy it back. Both AMED and AFAM are in the same markets and are forecasting very strong outlooks. Still holding dividend producer LLY. Sold my three day trade on China stock GIGM for $4.30 a fast 22% gain on the announcement and pop today. I'll consider buying back at $4. I'll be looking to get back into CHK and RIG on any market pull back ( assuming oil holds strong) or strong oil market.

Bullish Momentum or Bearish Mojo ?

Bearish triple Ms? Doje? Bearish flag? Bearish Cross? Bearish Reversal Candlestick Patterns? Advance on low volume bull trap? Say all the mojo vodoo you want, but the market exploded open today moving up 100 plus points within the first 15 minutes today.

After a year of listening to people say buy-and-hold and passive investing and EMT is dead...those who did nothing but stick with a passive index fund, are the real market gurus. I've listen to high paid money managers and CNBC "experts", say the market would turn south for months once it hit 8,500...then 9,500 for sure was the top...and now were at 10,500. Hay, I thought 9,800 was tops. I too was expecting a little 5% pull back, that never came in the index. Lots of stocks have pulled back but the market index has continued to climb higher.

Gold and commodities explode up today. No idea why the 180 reversal from last Fridays stronger dollar. India must be passing out free glasses of Champane to Americans visiting their country, as their new stock pile of gold rise in value.

Triple shorts and double short ETFs got clobbered today regardless of low volume. So should we change our thinking? Dow 11,000 now? Well,today was great for index investors but I saw a ton of selling during the first 30 minutes with many prices falling thereafter. So, lets listen to Ron explain this from his market technicals point of view. He explains why he's staying short and bearish near-term on the market.


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DOW Hits 10,400 What's Next ?

Now that the Market hit a new high 10 days ago what next?

What next? Dow 11,000? or 9,800? Well, after listening to all the newly minted market wizards on Seeking Alpha.com make continuous market crash perdictions, since the mother-of-all-bounces (in our lifetime) began, they final stopped about two weeks ago as the market was agin hitting new highs. Now that they stopped I'm ready to get very defensive. No as, I've said before, I see no 20% correction for certain in the next few weeks. Getting defensive, for me, means selling the stocks and sectors that have risen the most and rotating into stocks with perdictable earnings and good dividends that have not enjoyed a big market advance. And if there were a 5% correction you can bet I'd be looking to buy unless we had new negative economic data, in addition to our serious unemployment problem. Remember unemployment is a a very serious problem but if companies are expected to earn more resulting from these lay-offs and if the future economy is expected to get better then stocks can continue to slowly rise or go sideways as they did in 1983-84 and 1991-92 even as unemployment was high. But lets just consider whats more likely for the next few weeks.


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So, to help me confirm or reject my guess I'm calling in advice from the Voodoo Chartist as us EMT boys like to joke about. I'm not one to get excited about minute by minute market technical's and charts. But I do make major portfolio shifts in allocation between sectors, industries and cash based upon my technical advisors in addition to fundamental analyst recommendations.

When one chooses a technical advisor I recommend one be chosen based upon their knowledge of fundamentals, market history and knowledge of how portfolio managers think too. I'm going to share with you Ron Walker ( one of my advisors ), a man who's ego is in check and is worth your listening time. Now given the market has had its greatest move up since the 1930's I'm worried the markets now ready for another minor 3 maybe 5% pull-back similar to the last two.


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Another technical advisor I follow Carter Worth, of Oppenheimer Fund Management has also advised me a correction is now the most likely near term outlook. And we've said all along that the market seemed insistent on going back up to the pre-Lehman bankruptcy level of last September. We've hit those levels. Based upon his training and experience Carter says, "that's the wall we'll not climb above for some time now." He believes a correction is due. Does it mean we must have a sharp correction? No. It can be a slow back and forth but continuous drip down into December. Even if we have no correction now, I'd bet it would come in January when large investors choose to take capital gains for all of 2009 profits, on their 2010 tax return, simply by waiting to sell on January 1st 2010. Most likely the big winners in commodities related stocks will sold. But let's not start speculating beyond the next few weeks.

Last week I saw the fertilizers companies and telecom companies rise while oil drillers like my favorite RIG were extra weak. I've sold my fertilizer play IPI and oil tanker shipper FRO. I'll look to buy it back below $25, I hope. I'm holding my DRYS due to the rising BDI rate rising. I'd be looking to buy more RIG below $82. Metals like X and AA can be bought on any noticeable drop. Large banks and insurance companies like BAC, WFC, C, STI, GE, PRU, MET and HIG seem on very firm ground and in little risk of falling down more than 6-10% compared to other jumbo winners in 2009. I'd be looking to buy BAC, GE or HIG on any noticeable pull back. I also notice that some of my favorite defensive plays with excellent yields continued rising as other socks weakened last week. Finally boring defensive stocks like WMT, MO, LLY, PE, VZ and CHL (I hold positions it all four stocks) moved up. These stocks may finally be in a mini-break-out mode which makes them a safe play to hold (even in a correction) as one takes other short positions ( as Ron describes ) or moves to 50%+ cash levels ( which I am ).


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These videos are more for individuals with some good basic understanding of technical analysis. It's for those who want an in-depth market analysis and opinion on if the market is more likely to move down or up in the next two weeks.

Special Note: The average individual needs to spend more time developing a long-term savings and investing plan instead of a market trading plan. Market timing and market trading and daytrading is a very time consuming activity. Those selling monthly subscription services will always tell you "passive index" or "monthly dollar cost averging plans" or "buy and hold" is dead. Yet, many traders make less money than a simple buy and hold passive investing strategy. The down side of daytrading is rarely discussed. What does it cost you to be spending 8 hours a day five days a week on market trading?